Rational speculation and exchange rates

Nonlinearity In Exchange Rates and Forecasting

Informed Speculation and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

This paper explores the classic question regarding the costs and bene ̄ts of limiting exchange rate volatility starting from the premise that asset markets play an important role in aggregating information. I ̄nd that government trading, despite being completely observed, alters the ability of an asset market to reveal information. The main insight of the paper is that managing the exchange rate...

Profits and Speculation in Intra - Day Foreign Exchange Trading

This study examines profits and speculation in the USD/EUR trading of a bank in Germany over a four-month period. Dealing activity at the bank generates profits but speculation does not seem to contribute to this. We find that speculative positions fail to become profitable within a 30-minutes' horizon. Also, the suggestion that exchange rate volatility would foster speculative profits cannot b...

Exchange rates.

THE UNIVERSITY of Pennsylvania health system was in London recently, recruiting nurses. Its advertisement stated that its recruiters were experienced in hiring nurses from the UK, Ireland and the Philippines, and an 'on the spot job offer is a possibility'. This one advert neatly captures the dynamics of the new international nursing labour market. The advert was placed by an international recr...

No speculation in rational expectations under generalized information

Let us consider a pure exchange economy under non-partitional information where the traders are assumed to have a reflexive and transitive information structure and to have strictly monotone preferences. We show the no speculation theorem: If the initial endowment is ex-ante Pareto optimal then there exists no other rational expectations equilibrium for any price with respect to which all trade...